朱可怡, 涂文校, 冯晔囡, 白文清, 谢怡然, 张倩, 任婧寰, 施国庆, 向妮娟, 孟玲. 2023年12月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 凯发娱乐加盟代理, 2023, 38(12): 1421-1424. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202312260639
引用本文: 朱可怡, 涂文校, 冯晔囡, 白文清, 谢怡然, 张倩, 任婧寰, 施国庆, 向妮娟, 孟玲. 2023年12月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估[J]. 凯发娱乐加盟代理, 2023, 38(12): 1421-1424. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202312260639
Zhu Keyi, Tu Wenxiao, Feng Yenan, Bai Wenqing, Xie Yiran, Zhang Qian, Ren Jinghuan, Shi Guoqing, Xiang Nijuan, Meng Ling. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, December 2023[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(12): 1421-1424. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202312260639
Citation: Zhu Keyi, Tu Wenxiao, Feng Yenan, Bai Wenqing, Xie Yiran, Zhang Qian, Ren Jinghuan, Shi Guoqing, Xiang Nijuan, Meng Ling. Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, December 2023[J]. Disease Surveillance, 2023, 38(12): 1421-1424. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202312260639

2023年12月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, December 2023

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估2023年12月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾省,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。
    方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。
    结果 预计2023年12月突发公共卫生事件数可能较11月有所上升,以流行性感冒(流感)、新型冠状病毒感染等多种呼吸道传染病为主。 我国境内新型冠状病毒感染疫情处于较低水平流行,急性呼吸道传染病持续上升,12月需继续密切关注冬季可能的新型冠状病毒感染疫情上升以及其他多种急性呼吸道传染病共同传播带来的临床诊疗压力。 男男性行为人群猴痘疫情传播风险仍然存在,一般人群感染风险较低。 当前南北方省份流感活动整体持续上升,部分省份上升趋缓,预计各省份在12月上旬至中旬会陆续达到流行高峰,流行强度为季节性水平。 百日咳疫情可能仍将处于较高水平。 非职业性一氧化碳中毒仍将处于高发期。
    结论 对新型冠状病毒感染予以特别关注,对流感、猴痘、百日咳和非职业性一氧化碳中毒予以一般关注。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China (except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province, the same below) in December 2023.
    Methods Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) centers for disease control and prevention were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference.
    Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in December 2023 would be higher than that in November 2023. The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases such as respiratory infectious diseases including influenza, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The national epidemic of COVID-19 in China would still be at a low level, and acute respiratory infectious diseases would continue to rise. In December, it is necessary to pay close attention to the pressure on clinical diagnosis and treatment caused by the possible rise of COVID-19 and the co-transmission of other respiratory infectious diseases in winter. Among men who have sex with men, the risk of sustained transmission of mpox would still exit, with lower risk in the general population. The activity of influenza in both northern and southern provinces continues to show an upward trend at present, and the rate of increasing in some provinces is slowing down. It is expected that all provinces would reach the influenza epidemic peak in early to mid-December, and the epidemic intensity is seasonal. It is predicted that the prevalence of pertussis and the risk of nonoccupational carbon monoxide poisoning might remain high.
    Conclusion Special attention should be paid to COVID-19, and general attention should be paid to influenza, mpox, winter respiratory infectious diseases, pertussis and nonoccupational carbon monoxide poisoning.

     

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