袁祥, 李瑞山, 叶淑鸿, 刘永胜, 陆振华, 邵中军, 郭致文. 2005-2022年甘肃省武威市布鲁氏菌病流行特征与空间聚集性分析[J]. 凯发娱乐加盟代理. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202305250243
引用本文: 袁祥, 李瑞山, 叶淑鸿, 刘永胜, 陆振华, 邵中军, 郭致文. 2005-2022年甘肃省武威市布鲁氏菌病流行特征与空间聚集性分析[J]. 凯发娱乐加盟代理. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202305250243
Yuan Xiang, Li Ruishan, Ye Shuhong, Liu Yongsheng, Lu Zhenhua, Shao Zhongjun, Guo Zhiwen. Epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of brucellosis in Wuwei , Gansu, 2005?2022[J]. Disease Surveillance. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202305250243
Citation: Yuan Xiang, Li Ruishan, Ye Shuhong, Liu Yongsheng, Lu Zhenhua, Shao Zhongjun, Guo Zhiwen. Epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of brucellosis in Wuwei , Gansu, 2005?2022[J]. Disease Surveillance. DOI: 10.3784/jbjc.202305250243

2005-2022年甘肃省武威市布鲁氏菌病流行特征与空间聚集性分析

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of brucellosis in Wuwei , Gansu, 2005?2022

  • 摘要:
    目的  分析2005—2022年甘肃省武威市布鲁氏菌病(布病)流行病学特征与空间聚集性,为布病防控策略及措施提供参考依据。
    方法 2005—2022年布病疫情信息资料来自国家传染病报告信息管理系统,以3年为一时间段按乡镇行政区划统计累计病例数,采用全局空间自相关分析探究发病聚集性,局部空间自相关分析探究聚集分布情况,应用Spearman相关分析探究武威市布病病例数与牛羊存栏数的相关关系。
    结果 武威市2005—2022年共报告布病病例3455例,布病疫情呈持续上升趋势,年均发病率为10.77/10万;男女性别比为2.48∶1;职业分布中农民占比85.88%;86.37%的病例集中在30~69岁年龄段,年龄中位数为50岁;发病集中在3—8月。 2008—2022年布病病例呈空间聚集性分布,且聚集性随时间逐渐增强,发病热点范围呈逐步扩大趋势,热点区域依次在天祝县、民勤县、古浪县内更替;全市布病病例数与牛羊存栏数呈正相关关系,且羊存栏数关联强度高于牛存栏数。
    结论 武威市布病疫情持续上升,空间聚集性明显,热点乡镇数逐步增加,热点区域持续变换,与养殖业的高速发展密切相关,应在加强畜间检疫、免疫、净化的基础上,倡导落实人畜分离,针对农民、高龄化等人群采取适宜的宣教及干预有效措施,在热点区域普及重点人群布病血清学筛查。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution of brucellosis in Wuwei, Gansu province, from 2005 to 2022 and provide reference for the development of brucellosis prevention and control measures.
    Methods The incidence data of brucellosis in Wuwei from 2005 to 2022 were collected from National Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to investigate the spatial clustering of brucellosis cases. In contrast, local spatial clustering analysis was used to understand the distribution of disease clusters. Furthermore, Pearson correlation analysis was used to explore the potential relationship between the number of brucellosis cases and the population of cattle and sheep.
    Results A total of 3455 brucellosis cases were reported in Wuwei during 2005–2022. The annual incidence of brucellosis showed a continual upward trend, with an average annual rate of 10.77/100 000. The male to female ratio of the cases was 2.48∶1. In terms of occupational distribution, the cases in farmers accounted for 85.88%. The majority of cases (86.37%) were aged 30–69 years, with a median age of 50 years. The incidence peaked during March-August. From 2008 to 2022, the spatial distribution of brucellosis cases showed clear clustering, which became more obvious as time passed. The brucellosis hotspot areas showed gradual expansion, altering within Tianzhu, Minqin and Gulang counties. A positive correlation was found between local brucellosis case number and the local stocks of cattle and sheep. The correlation with the stock of sheep was stronger compared with stock of cattle.
    Conclusion The incidence of brucellosis in Wuwei continued to increase during 2005–2022, exhibiting clear spatial clustering, stead increase of townships with high incidence, and alters of hotspot areas. This trend was closely associated with the rapid development of the animal breeding industry. It is necessary to promote human-animal segregation based on strengthened livestock quarantine measures, immunization, and purification, take targeted measures in the health education and intervention in farmers and the elderly and conduct serological screening for brucellosis in key populations in hotspot areas.

     

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